Volume 16, Issue 1 (Jan & Feb-In Press 2026)
J Research Health 2026, 16(1): 9-9 |
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Ethics code: IR.GOUMS.REC.1399.270
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Heidari A, Khodabandelu S, Khatirnamani Z, Rafiei N, Gholami M. Modeling Mortality Rates based on the Lee-Carter Model in Golestan Province: 2011-2028. J Research Health 2026; 16 (1) :9-9
URL: http://jrh.gmu.ac.ir/article-1-2639-en.html
URL: http://jrh.gmu.ac.ir/article-1-2639-en.html
1- Health Management and Social Development Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
2- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Student Research Committee, School of Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
3- Health Management and Social Development Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran ,khatirzahra@gmail.com
2- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Student Research Committee, School of Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
3- Health Management and Social Development Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran ,
Abstract: (27 Views)
Background: Reliable information on the causes of death and mortality trends and their changes is one of the most basic principles of planning, management, and evaluation of health sectors. The purpose of this study was to model mortality rates in Golestan province.
Method: This study was based on available data in northern Iran. First, mortality changes were modeled from 2011 to 2018, and in the next stage, by recognizing the pattern of changes, mortality rates were predicted using the Lee-Carter model to 2028.
Result: During the years 2011-2018, 60,082 deaths occurred because of various reasons. The average ± age of the deceased was 58.92 ± 26.64 years. Generally, 43.2% was related to women, and 56.8% was related to men. The trend of mortality in all age and sex groups during the years 2019 - 2028 will have a downward trend. As predicted in 2028, the mortality rate in the age group over 80 years reaches from 107.14 to 72.43 in the total population, from 90.12 to 42.11 in men, and from 101.49 to 52.25 in women (Per 1000 population). The results of this study showed that the trend of mortality in all age and sex groups during the years 2019 to 2028 has a downward trend with a low slope therefore.
Conclusion: This study was designed before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and due to changes that this pandemic has caused in mortality rate, investigating the trend of mortality during this pandemic is recommended.
Method: This study was based on available data in northern Iran. First, mortality changes were modeled from 2011 to 2018, and in the next stage, by recognizing the pattern of changes, mortality rates were predicted using the Lee-Carter model to 2028.
Result: During the years 2011-2018, 60,082 deaths occurred because of various reasons. The average ± age of the deceased was 58.92 ± 26.64 years. Generally, 43.2% was related to women, and 56.8% was related to men. The trend of mortality in all age and sex groups during the years 2019 - 2028 will have a downward trend. As predicted in 2028, the mortality rate in the age group over 80 years reaches from 107.14 to 72.43 in the total population, from 90.12 to 42.11 in men, and from 101.49 to 52.25 in women (Per 1000 population). The results of this study showed that the trend of mortality in all age and sex groups during the years 2019 to 2028 has a downward trend with a low slope therefore.
Conclusion: This study was designed before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and due to changes that this pandemic has caused in mortality rate, investigating the trend of mortality during this pandemic is recommended.
Type of Study: Orginal Article |
Subject:
● Disease Control
Received: 2024/10/7 | Accepted: 2025/03/5 | Published: 2026/01/27
Received: 2024/10/7 | Accepted: 2025/03/5 | Published: 2026/01/27
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