en ● Disease Control مقاله اصيل پژوهشي Orginal Article <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><span style="font-family:Tahoma;"><span style="line-height:2;"><strong>Background</strong>: The recent novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has underlined the importance of risk score models in public health emergencies. This study aimed to develop a risk prediction score to identify high-risk hospitalized patients for disease progression on admission.<br> <strong>Methods</strong>: This prospective cohort study included 171 COVID-19 patients, identified through the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test, admitted to Bohlool Hospital in Gonabad City, Iran, between April 4 and June 5, 2021. The patients&rsquo; demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected upon admission, and clinical outcomes were monitored until the end of the study. The discovery dataset (80% of the data) was used to develop the risk score model based on clinical and laboratory features and patient characteristics to predict COVID-19 progression. An additive risk score model was developed based on the regression coefficients of the significant variables in a multiple logistic regression model. The performance of the risk score model was evaluated on the validation dataset (20% of the data) using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Statistical&nbsp;analyses were&nbsp;performed with SPSS software, version 21.<br> <strong>Results</strong>: The Mean&plusmn;SD for age of participants was 59.54&plusmn;20.52 years, and 48.6% were male. Most patients (82.5%) fully recovered or showed improvement, while 5.2% experienced disease progression and 12.3% died. Three variables, interleukin-6, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and lung involvement, were found to be significant in predicting risk, with a good discriminatory ability, having an area under the ROC curve of 0.970 (95% CI, 0.935%, 1.00%) in the discovery set and 0.973 (95% CI, 0.923%, 1.00%) in the validation set.<br> <strong>Conclusion</strong>: The developed risk score model in this study can be used as a clinical diagnostic tool to identify COVID-19 patients at higher risk of disease progression and aid in informed decision-making and resource utilization in similar situations, such as respiratory disease outbreaks in the post-corona era.&nbsp;</span></span></span></div> Coronavirus, COVID-19, Risk score, Prediction, Disease progression, Iran 217 230 http://jrh.gmu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-646-1&slc_lang=en&sid=1 Fatemeh Mohammadzadeh fmhz.uni@gmail.com 100319475328460033476 100319475328460033476 No Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, School of Health, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran. Ali Delshad Noughabi ali_delshad2000@yahoo.com 100319475328460033477 100319475328460033477 No Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran. Sina Sabeti Bilondi sina.sabeti2014@gmail.com 100319475328460033478 100319475328460033478 No Department of Nursing, Faculty of Nursing and Midwifery, Gonabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Gonabad, Iran. Mitra Tavakolizadeh mi.tavakoly@yahoo.com 100319475328460033479 100319475328460033479 No Unit of Clinical Research Development, Bohlool Hospital, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran. Jafar Hajavi Hajavi.jaf@gmail.com 100319475328460033480 100319475328460033480 No Department of Microbiology, Infectious Disease Research Center, School of Medicine, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran. Hosein Aalami Aalami1358@yahoo.com 100319475328460033481 100319475328460033481 No Unit of Clinical Research Development, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran. Mohsen Sahebanmaleki Dr.saheban@yahoo.com 100319475328460033482 100319475328460033482 Yes Health Promotion Research Center, Bohlool Hospital, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran.